Research Report

Megatrends: have we seen the end of the pay rise?

This information is available for download

Format Title File size

Megatrends: have we seen the end of the pay rise?

Published February 2014

File size:
1772 KB

Download the 'Megatrends: have we seen the end of the pay rise?' pdf 1772 KB, megatrends_2013-end-of-pay-rise.pdf. Opens in a new window.

About this download

In our recent Megatrends report, we set out some of the big economic and social trends that have helped to shape work and working life in recent decades, such as deindustrialisation and demographic change. While the future is uncertain, it seems likely that many of these trends will continue to have an impact for years or even decades to come. Equally, past trends can stop having an impact – or even go into reverse – and new trends will emerge.

This third publication in the series tackles one of the ‘facts of working life’ in the UK, namely the long-term trend for pay to rise faster than prices. Since 2009, this trend has come to a halt. Depending on the measure of inflation used, average regular weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) are now between 8% and 10.4% lower in real terms than in January 2009. This has not happened before for at least half a century and quite probably much longer. A summary of the key findings is also included.

"The recession and its aftermath have seen pay freezes become more common and,
in a small minority of cases, pay has been reduced in nominal terms.
A real-terms pay increase has been the exception rather than the rule."

View the first provocation: Megatrends: has job turnover slowed down?
View the second provocation: Megatrends: are organisations losing the trust of their workers?
View the fourth provocation: Megatrends: are we working harder than ever?

View the Megatrends overview page