Survey Report

Labour Market Outlook: Autumn 2013

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Labour Market Outlook: Autumn 2013

Published November 2013

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The Labour Market Outlook is produced in partnership with SuccessFactors, an SAP company, and provides a quarterly update on key HR, economic and labour market statistics. The aim of the survey is to produce an industry-valued benchmark of key HR statistics that can be used by members, employers and government.

The Autumn 2013 report is based on responses from 1,020 HR professionals and employers drawn from CIPD membership and the YouGov panel of HR professionals.

The report finds that the short-term jobs outlook is increasingly positive - near-term employer confidence has risen to its highest level since the report began in 2005. Private sector firms will continue to drive much of the upturn in employment prospects, with confidence particularly strong in the manufacturing and production and the wholesale, retail and motor trade sectors, as well as SMEs and employers in the south-east of England.

On the downside, employment looks set to contract in the north of England over the three months to December 2013 and, as in previous reports, the number of people employed in the public sector is expected to continue to fall.

In the medium term, the findings suggest that stronger economic growth will not be accompanied by big rises in employment, as employers take a measured approach to increasing their employment levels as the economy improves.

"Looking ahead, fewer than one in five employers report that they would increase staff
numbers by more than 2% if economic growth were to return to a more
stable positionof consistent growth of 2% or above."

The report finds that pay expectations have fallen slightly since last quarter. Excluding bonuses, the mean basic pay award is expected to increase by 1.6% over the next 12 months, down from the 1.7% forecast last quarter.

Content of the report

  • Foreword
  • Recruitment and redundancy outlook
  • Pay outlook
  • Sample method

See more information about the Labour Market Outlook