Survey Report

Labour Market Outlook: Winter 2014-15

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Labour Market Outlook: Winter 2014-15

Published February 2015

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Download the 'Labour Market Outlook: Winter 2014-15' pdf 596 KB, labour-market-outlook_2015-winter-2014-15.pdf. Opens in a new window.

The quarterly CIPD Labour Market Outlook (LMO) provides a set of forward-looking labour market indicators, highlighting employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions.

"... near-term employment prospects have fallen modestly
but still lie well above the survey’s historic average.
This quarter’s net employment balance ... has decreased ... since the autumn 2014 report."

Key findings:

  • The median basic pay increase among all employers that carried out a basic pay award (including pay freezes) in the 12 months to December was 1.3%. The median basic pay increase among employers that awarded a pay increase (that is, excluding employers that froze pay) only during the same period was 2%.

  • Almost half of private sector firms (48%) said that they gave a basic pay increase of at least 2% during the same period. This includes more than half of manufacturing companies (54%) and less than half of services companies (47%). At the same time, more than a third of services companies (35%) and manufacturing and production companies (35%) froze pay. Additionally, 54% of public sector employers and 45% of SMEs froze basic pay in the 12 months to December 2014.

  • Looking ahead, more than two thirds of private sector employers (69%) expect to increase their basic pay award by at least 2% in the 12 months to December 2015.

  • Private sector firms that reported having a premium quality strategy (50%) are more likely to have matched the inflation rate target of 2% or more in their basic pay award than those who adopted a basic quality approach (43%) in the 12 months to December 2014. Looking ahead, the share of employers that plan to award 2% or more in the 12 months to December 2015 is higher among the premium quality cohort (73%) than the basic quality one (60%).

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Take a look at the previous Labour Market Outlook surveys and Focus reports