Up to half of working population could go off sick, says CIPD
04 September 2009
Organisations should prepare for up to half of their workforce to be absent if a second wave of swine flu hits the UK, says the CIPD.
Joint guidance issued by the CIPD and Business Continuity Institute (BCI) advises employers to consolidate contingency plans, after research by the BCI found that over half (57 per cent) of them had no plans – or only weak ones – to deal with a swine flu pandemic.
The Cabinet Office predicts a pandemic-related staff absence rate of just 12 per cent, but this does not take into account the effect of localised school closures, according to the CIPD.
“Increased parent-worker absences could have a significant impact,” said Ben Willmott, senior public policy adviser at the CIPD. “We believe all businesses should plan for a worst case scenario, where staff absence rates reach 50 per cent.”
The new guide, Risk and Business Continuity Management, recommends cross-training staff to cover for absent colleagues and reducing human contact for key workers. It also suggests remote working and flexible hours to prevent the spread of infection.
A survey by the British Chamber of Commerce backed up the BCI findings. Fewer than half of the 450 firms it questioned had strategies to cope with a worsening outbreak. More than 80 per cent said they had not been affected by swine flu and only a third believed the disease would threaten the UK’s recovery from recession.
“There is a real danger that senior management teams will ignore the threat to their business posed by a second and more serious wave of swine flu, after seeing the first wave subside much more quickly than anticipated,” said Willmott.
“Staff absence levels could peak at levels that would make business as usual extremely difficult,” he added.
Yesterday the government lowered its prediction of how many people could die from swine flu this winter. The chief medical officer said 19,000 deaths would occur in England in a worst-case scenario, down from an estimate in July of 65,000 deaths. The number of new swine flu cases last week fell to 4,500, down from 5,000 the previous week.
The government has said it will not close schools except under exceptional circumstances, but there are fears that schools re-opening after the summer break will trigger a surge in the virus.