The recession-hit jobs market will continue to shrink for the next three months, according to the latest CIPD Labour Market Outlook report.
The survey of 500 organisations found that no sector was immune to the economic downturn, with the impact spreading beyond private firms to the public and voluntary sectors for the first time.
CIPD chief economist John Philpott said that the private sector had so far been hardest hit, but that “here is evidence for the first time that the public sector is beginning to feel the pain”.
He predicted job cuts would become a regular occurrence for public-sector employers in light of the reduction in public spending outlined in last month’s budget.
“While I expect private-sector net employment intentions to start to improve in the near future, the current figures for the public sector will look like a walk in the park as the drive to balance the books gets under way in earnest,” Philpott said.
But Gillian Hibberd, president of the Public Sector People Managers’ Association, told PM: “The public sector has felt the pain for a long time. The difference between the public and private sectors is that we have statutory consultation periods that are probably lengthier than in the private sector. So downsizing takes longer. These long lead-in times mean we are only just starting to see the pain manifest itself now.” Hibberd also predicted job numbers in the public sector would continue to shrink for the next three years because of the huge public debt.
But Martin Tiplady, director of HR at the Metropolitan Police, told PM: “We are not seeing any change in demand in positions here. In terms of our own constraints, we’re losing jobs but that’s down to our own efforts to be more efficient. I am not picking up a shift in the labour market. These difficulties are not new and not created by the downturn that’s around at the moment.”
The CIPD survey also found the number of employers planning to make redundancies continued to exceed those planning to hire. Employers in the private sector were most pessimistic.
Pay will be hit across all sectors, according to the report, with 27 per cent of employers not planning a review this year. Employers that are planning a review reported the basic pay increase would be lower, falling from 2.6 per cent to 2 per cent.