The CIPD’s chief economist, Mark Beatson, provides an end-of-year commentary on what might be expected to happen in the UK labour market in 2015, based on economic forecasts already in the public domain.
These are some of the key predictions that he discusses in the report:
- The UK can expect economic growth of around 2.4% in 2015 – slightly lower than in 2014.
- Employment might grow by about half a million in 2015, slightly more than the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast.
- Wage growth is likely to remain in the 1-2% range for most or all of 2015, although lower inflation might mean that real earnings increase slightly.
- No significant increase in wage growth can be expected until 2016 and even then is not guaranteed
- Employers need to raise their productivity and that includes developing their workforce before skill shortages mount.
- Productivity should again be the focus of economic policy during 2015.
‘In many respects the implications for employers and policy-makers in 2015 are very
similar to those we highlighted in 2014. We said 2014 needed to be a
“year of productivity [growth]”. Well, 2015 needs to be the year when we see UK employers secure a productivity rollover.’
The latest report in our Megatrends series looks at how effective management in the workplace contributes to business productivity and organisational resilience.