The CIPD's quarterly Labour Market Outlook is one of the most authoritative employment indicators in the UK and provides forward-looking labour market data and analysis on employers’ recruitment, redundancy and pay intentions.

Labour Market Outlook: Summer 2022

Despite forecasts of a recession from the Bank of England, our findings indicate that recruitment and retention intentions remain strong. And that redundancies will stay low through the next quarter.

Apart from raising pay and hiring new people, employers are also looking at upskilling existing staff to tackle recruitment and retention difficulties. Our practitioner recommendations will help you focus on the key actions to consider. 

For these findings and more, download our latest report. 

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Employment confidence remains high

The net employment balance – which measures the difference between employers expecting to increase staff levels and those expecting to decrease staff levels in the next three months – remained high at +34. This continues to exceed pre-pandemic levels, pointing to strong employment intentions.

Upskilling the most popular response to hiring difficulties

The top response planned by employers to recruitment and retention difficulties is to upskill existing staff (41%), followed by advertising more jobs as being flexible (35%). Raising wages comes in third at 29%.

Hard-to-fill vacancies prevalent and persistent  

47% of employers have hard-to-fill vacancies. These are most common in education (56%), transport and storage (55%), and the voluntary sector (53%).

Redundancies remain below pre-pandemic level

The proportion of employers planning on making redundancies is below pre-pandemic levels at 13%. Employers’ focus on retention and training demonstrates their desire to get more from their existing employers in the face of recruitment challenges.

Private sector pay at new peak

Expected pay awards in the private sector have risen to a median of 4%, the highest dating back to 2012. But altogether across the private, public and third/voluntary sectors, employers expect median basic pay awards to remain at 3%.

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