Is the research valid?

Before rushing off to set up a mindfulness workshop, it is important to interrogate the research to see if it holds up. The cornerstone of scientific research is transparency and replicability. Can we see the methodology behind the research, was it appropriate, and do the conclusions follow the data?  

Apart from a Wikipedia page containing a formula, there’s little available background to the research behind Blue Monday. It has been widely challenged, given the lack of clarity about what was actually measured and questions about whether the formula used to identify the supposed phenomenon is accurate.  

In other words, the premise isn’t based on robust data. In fact, the academic who conducted the research has since backtracked to say it’s not a helpful concept.  

That the research was commissioned by a holiday company should also ring alarm bells, and observers should weigh the evidence with an extra pinch of salt. After all, isn’t Blue Monday a perfect way to market travel to sunny climes to those wanting to escape the January blues? While many of us would agree that January is far from the most exciting month of the year, there’s no clear evidence that it’s particularly difficult on one day, nor that there’s any noticeable impact in our workplaces.

What can we learn from Blue Monday?

Despite the myth, there are lessons to be learnt from Blue Monday. The idea demonstrates how important it is to be critical about the data or headlines you are presented with, how they have come about, where have they come from and so on.  

We need to dig deeper and ask questions about the methods, the level of causality between the findings and conclusions, and especially who commissioned the research and for what purpose. This can help us identify fads, misinformation and the real impact of the evidence.   

On a more direct level, the concept of a Blue Monday does put a spotlight on some real issues for employers and employees alike. Things like motivation, wellbeing and financial worries. These however, are year-round concerns. 

Take financial wellbeing for example. CIPD research shows that a quarter of workers believe money worries impact their job performance and few feel able to discuss finances with their colleagues or manager. Employers clearly need to pay attention to the financial wellbeing of their employees, and not just around one day in a year. 

While there’s little evidence to suggest that Blue Monday is a genuine phenomenon, we can use it as a prompt to examine wellbeing and other people issues that should be addressed throughout the year.

Explore the CIPD's range of information and resources on wellbeing.

By Mel Green